Peak
oil
The
world's oil supplies will not last
forever. Sooner or later there will be no oil left. Over the last ten
years we have used a quarter of all the oil consumed in human history.
So what does this
mean for the future of humankind ?
Of course there is a
great deal of debate about when existing supplies will run out and how
many new sources will be found. The point at which total supplies will
begin to fall is called 'peak oil'. Anything we can do to push the
moment of 'peak oil' further into the future will postpone the crisis.
This is why it is so important to get an accurate
calculation of the known supplies of oil. We should look at these
figures very carefully. And this is where the problems begin. If we
have already passed the peak supply of oil, then we could soon reach
the end of our present oil-based economy, with all the alarming results
which could follow.
There are two possible points of view :
a) The oil industry tells us : 'Peak oil' is far in the future - around
2030. We don't need to worry about it. New sources of oil are being
discovered all the time. We are making more efficient cars and machines
which use far less oil. New technologies will reduce consumption. Trust
us ! (But let's face it, oil companies are not reknowned for their
honesty or openness.)
or
b) Many environmental researchers tell us : 'Peak oil' is very near -
or maybe we have already passed it. It's true that new oil supplies are
still arriving; but look at the Canadian oil shales; it's extremely
difficult to extract this oil and the environmental contamination is
horrifying. We must take serious action to lessen the impact. We must
spread the message to everyone on earth : Stop wasting energy and fuel.
Our survival depends on it. Trust us !
So who is right ?
Surely we can trust the International
Energy
Agency ? Their latest report says that oil production can be
raised from its present level of 83 million barrels a day to 105
million.
But
there
are
people
inside
the
I.E.A.
who
tell a different story. They say that the agency
is deliberately denying an oil shortage to prevent panic buying. They
claim that the United States wants to under-report the fall in oil
production and exaggerate the discovery of new supplies. These insiders
tell us that the Agency will never do anything to upset the U.S.A. They
say, "We have already entered the 'peak oil' zone. The situation is
really bad."
The British M.P. who chairs the House of Commons
committee on peak oil and gas, John Hemming, says he is suspicious that
the I.E.A. figures cannot be relied on. "The U.K. should move faster
towards a more sustainable economy if it is to avoid severe economic
dislocation", he says.